Estimate Contingency and Risk

The financial question

Address uncertain access, concealed conditions, permits, subcontractors, and price volatility without hiding scope risk. Use actual company cost and completed-job evidence rather than competitor prices or unsupported industry averages.

Inputs to control

• Define each input and its source before calculating.
• Use consistent treatment for direct cost, overhead, revenue, discounts, credits, taxes, and incomplete work.
• Keep assumptions dated and review them after material, wage, insurance, or operating changes.

Key checkpoints

• Identify known assumptions and unknown conditions in writing.
• Use allowances or alternates only when the customer can understand them.
• Define change-order triggers before work begins.
• Avoid unsupported percentage padding that cannot be explained.

Operating method

• Collect the required cost and revenue records.
• Reconcile missing, duplicated, credited, warranty, and unbilled transactions.
• Calculate the result using a documented method.
• Compare estimate, target, and actual results.
• Assign corrective action to pricing, purchasing, dispatch, field execution, billing, or management as appropriate.

Management review

• Look for trends by service, technician, customer type, location, and time period.
• Investigate the cause before changing price or performance expectations.
• Have accounting, tax, legal, or financial professionals review matters within their scope.